Is Time for a
Venezuelan Exile Army
By: Carlos L. Arce
“Power concedes nothing without a
demand. It never did and it never will.” Frederick Douglass, 1857
It is time
to stop doing the same thing, so that we can obtain a different result in
Venezuela. If the objective is regime
change and a return to a form of capitalist democracy, it will probably not be achieved
by massive public anti-government demonstrations alone. The communist regime of Nicolás Maduro is
operating under two realities; one, it has the loyalty of a China and Russia-supported mercenary army, which can and has resisted any and all signs of
public uprising. Two, the reign of terror, which followed the overthrow of “Brother Leader” Muammar Gaddafi in Libya in 2011 and his subsequent public beating to death by an unruly mob, makes a negotiated capitulation unthinkable for modern-day tyrants. Any voluntary abdication of the regime would
require a solid guarantee of safe exit to an opulent exile for the leaders and their top
military cadre; that appears increasingly unlikely.
So, where do
we go from here? The answer, as always,
is military action; power and guns in human affairs have historically proven to
be inseparable. The paramount questions are: who and how? The traditional solution of
an American military invasion is not on the table while the present U.S.
government administration is in place.
It is correctly viewed as another endless foreign war with probable
counter-productive results. Hence, the
who is the exiled Venezuelan community.
Their enslaved population back home needs a liberation army; where is
the Venezuelan youth? Wealthy and
educated Venezuelans, now enjoying the American dream in Florida, must lead and
support an exiled army and prepare for war.
How can this
be done? With the logistical support of the U.S. military, to be sure, but avoiding the miscalculations of the failed invasion of Cuba by its exiled army at the Bay of Pigs in 1962. Just gaining a beachhead and then relying on
a predicated popular uprising did not work then and would work now. In the age of electric machine guns, storming
the Bastille is self-delusion. The exiles should have invaded the Cuban Island of Pinos offshore from the main island and established a free Cuba there. It
would have been recognized as the rightful government of Cuba by the U.S. and
its allies, and it would have become a prosperous and impregnable fortress; it
would have eventually forced the collapse of the Castro regime.
How can the
Venezuelans do it? Ask the U.S. to train
and equip their exile army, perhaps in the American Base of Guantanamo, Cuba. It should not be a secret because it would
be impossible to make it one. Plan and
execute the feasible invasion of a portion of Venezuelan territory to establish
a new government within the country and the real battlefront. There are two practical options, one is the
invasion of one of the Venezuelan territorial islands on the Caribbean Sea,
e.g. Isla La Tortuga. The second option
would be to use the territory of the nation of Guyana, east of Venezuela, to invade
the contested territory of Essequibo between the two nations. This would require a promise of a future settlement
of the dispute favorable to Guyana, as well as a guarantee of American
protection against a Venezuelan invasion of Guyana by the Maduro military. It would immediately provide the land for the establishment of the free Venezuelan government, and it would mark the beginning of the war for liberation with Venezuelan soldiers and American guns.
The route to
victory from there will be through the hearts and minds of the Venezuelan
population, which means that it cannot be an offer to replace the communist
regime with a vague offer of “something better.” It should outline the steps to ensure the future
protection of constitutional order and basic human rights, a firm commitment to
presidential term limits, and the configuration of an economic system based on limited
capitalism within a welfare state that remembers the poor. What a
great opportunity Venezuela presents for the creation of a model government for
Latin America; it can perhaps be the genesis of a confederation of Latin nations. The spirit of Simón is savoring this moment.
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: Carlos L. Arce
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As long as Maduro has the loyalty of the Venezuelan armed forces and of a large part of the population, plus the help of powerful allies, I don't think that military intervention from the outside is in the cards. There are not enough people, even if there are many, willing to form an effective invasion force, and, as you correctly point out, the US is not now willing to get involved. Nor should they, considering the history of American military intervention in latin american matters, dating back decades. For example, the creation of Panama from Colombian territory, and the many instances of regime change south of the border, all deeply resented by the people, if not by the local oligarchs. I hope Venezuela has better days, and that the Maduro regime is brought down, but it has to come from within, as it has in so many other countries. If the people want change, a majority of the people, and are willing to do what it takes, change will come, as it did in Eastern Europe where brutal leaders, like Romania's Ceausescu, were brought down, but if Maduro has strong local support, it won't.
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